[1]许莹莹,朱蓓,阎蕾,等.成人造口旁疝风险预测列线图模型的构建[J].军事护理,2022,39(03):70-74.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1008-9993.2022.03.017]
　XU Yingying,ZHU Bei,YAN Lei,et al.Development of A Nomogram Model for Predicting the Risk of Parastomal Hernia in Adults[J].Nursing Journal Of Chinese People's Laberation Army,2022,39(03):70-74.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1008-9993.2022.03.017]
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成人造口旁疝风险预测列线图模型的构建
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《军事护理》[ISSN:2097-1826/CN:31-3186/R]

卷:
39
期数:
2022年03期
页码:
70-74
栏目:
研究荟萃
出版日期:
2022-03-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Development of A Nomogram Model for Predicting the Risk of Parastomal Hernia in Adults
文章编号:
1008-9993(2022)03-0070-05
作者:
许莹莹1; 朱蓓2; 阎蕾3; 陈圣枝4
(1.江苏大学医学院 护理系,江苏 镇江 212001; 2.江苏大学附属医院 门诊部,江苏 镇江 212001; 3.江苏大学附属医院 护理部; 4.江苏大学附属医院 普外科)
Author(s):
XU Yingying1; ZHU Bei2; YAN Lei3; CHEN Shengzhi4
(1.Department of Nursing,Medical College of Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212001,Jiangsu Province,China; 2.Outpatient Department,Affiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212001,Jiangsu Province,China; 3.Department of Nursing,Affiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University; 4.Department of General Surgery,Affiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University)
关键词:
造口;  造口旁疝;  危险因素;  预测模型;  列线图
Keywords:
stoma;  parastomal hernia;  risk factors;  prediction model;  nomogram
分类号:
R473.6
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1008-9993.2022.03.017
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的 探讨成人造口旁疝的影响因素,构建风险预测模型。方法 回顾性分析2016年1月至2019年12月某三级甲等医院262例造口患者的资料,分析造口旁疝的独立危险因素,并构建风险预测模型。采用受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)和校准曲线评估预测模型的区分度和校准度; 采用训练集进行模型的内部验证,2016年1月至2019年12月选择另一所三级甲等医院60例造口患者资料进行模型的外部验证。 结果 本组造口患者造口旁疝发生率为37.80%(99/262),最终进入预测模型的因子为身体质量指数(body mass index,BMI)、造口术后时间、造口孔径大小、造口位置、是否术后肠梗阻(均P<0.05)。列线图模型在内部验证组和外部验证组中的AUC分别为0.910和0.923,两组校准曲线显示列线图模型的预测值和实际观察值结果一致性良好。结论 本研究构建的风险预测列线图模型有助于医护人员筛查造口旁疝高危人群,可为尽早制定预见策略提供理论指导。
Abstract:
Objective To explore the influencing factors of parastomal hernia in adults and develop a risk prediction model.Methods The data of 262 ostomy patients in a tertiary hospital were analyzed retrospectively from January 2016 to December 2019.The independent risk factors of parastomal hernia were explored,and a risk prediction model were developed.The area under a receiver operating characteristic curve and the calibration curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the prediction model.The training set was used for internal verification of the model.The data of 60 ostomy patients in another tertiary hospital were selected from January 2016 to December 2019 for external verification of the model.Results The incidence of parastomal hernia was 37.80%(99/262).The factors that finally entered the predictive model were body mass index(BMI),stoma survival time,stoma aperture size,stoma location and postoperative intestinal obstruction(P<0.05).The AUC scores of the nomogram model in the internal and external verification groups were 0.910 and 0.923,respectively.The two sets of calibration curves showed that the predicted value of the nomogram model was in good agreement with the actual observation value.Conclusions The risk prediction nomogram model is helpful for medical staff to screen the patients with high risk of parastomal hernias.It can provide theoretical instructions for formulating predictive strategies as soon as possible.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
【 收稿日期 】 2021-03-25 【 修回日期 】 2021-06-29
【 作者简介 】 许莹莹,硕士在读,从事伤口造口护理研究
【 通信作者 】 朱蓓,电话:0511-85025006
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-03-15