[1]杨吉羚,邹圣强,茆敏,等.老年冠心病患者再入院风险预测模型的构建及验证[J].军事护理,2021,38(08):20-23.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1008-9993.2021.08.006]
　YANG Jiling,ZOU Shengqiang,MAO Min,et al.Construction and Validation of the Risk Prediction Model for Readmission among Elderly Patients with Coronary Heart Disease[J].Nursing Journal Of Chinese People's Laberation Army,2021,38(08):20-23.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1008-9993.2021.08.006]
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老年冠心病患者再入院风险预测模型的构建及验证
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《军事护理》[ISSN:2097-1826/CN:31-3186/R]

卷:
38
期数:
2021年08期
页码:
20-23
栏目:
论著
出版日期:
2021-08-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Construction and Validation of the Risk Prediction Model for Readmission among Elderly Patients with Coronary Heart Disease
文章编号:
1008-9993(2021)08-0020-04
作者:
杨吉羚1; 邹圣强1; 茆敏2; 胡佳民1; 陈隆譞2; 薛琦1; 徐金菁1
(1.江苏大学附属镇江三院 重症医学科,江苏 镇江 212004; 2.镇江市中西医结合医院 重症医学科,江苏 镇江 212004)
Author(s):
YANG Jiling1; ZOU Shengqiang1; MAO Min2; HU Jiamin1; CHEN Longxuan2; XUE Qi1; XU Jinjing1
(1.Intensive Care Unit,Zhenjiang Third Affiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212004,Jiangsu Province,China; 2.Intensive Care Unit,Zhenjiang Hospital of Chinese Traditional and Western Medicine,Zhenjiang 212004,Jiangsu Province,China)
关键词:
老年人;  冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病;  风险预测模型
Keywords:
the elderly;  coronary atherosclerotic heart disease;  risk prediction model
分类号:
R473.54
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1008-9993.2021.08.006
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的 探讨老年冠心病患者6个月内再入院的预测价值,为临床预测患者再入院提供参考依据。方法 采用便利抽样法,选取2018年1月至2020年6月镇江市某三级甲等医院确诊为冠状动脉粥样硬化性心脏病的1536例老年患者的病例资料为研究对象。按照6个月内是否再入院将其分为未再入院组和再入院组。比较两组患者的临床资料、自理能力评分及生化指标,采用Logistic多因素回归分析筛选再入院发生的独立危险因素,采用受试者工作特征曲线评估相关指标对再入院发生的预测价值(均P<0.05)。结果 患者的性别、心律失常、经皮冠状动脉介入治疗手术史、自理能力评分、甘油三酯、D-二聚体是老年冠心病患者再入院的独立预测因素。内部验证该模型的ROC曲线下面积值为0.890,有较好校准度。结论 本研究构建的风险预测模型能较好地预测冠心病患者再入院的发生风险,为医护人员及时采取预防及健康管理措施提供参考。
Abstract:
Objective To explore the predictive value of readmission within 6 months among elderly patients with coronary heart disease(CHD),so as to provide references for clinical prediction of readmission.Methods A total of 1536 elderly patients with coronary heart disease were selected in a tertiary hospital in Zhenjiang City from January 2018 to June 2020 by convenience sampling method.They were divided into the readmission group and the non-readmission group according to whether they were readmitted within 6 months.The clinical data, self-care abilities and biochemical indexes of the patients from two groups were compared.Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the independent risk factors of readmission.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of relevant indexes for readmission(all P<0.05)Results Gender,arrhythmia,Percutaneous Coronary Intervention(PCI)history,self-care ability score,triglyceride and D-dimer were independent predictors of readmission among elderly patients with coronary heart disease.The area under the ROC curve of the model was verified internally as 0.890 which showed a good calibration degree.Conclusions The risk prediction model established in this study can predict the risk of readmission among elderly patients with coronary heart disease well.The model can provide references for medical staff to take timely prevention and health management measures.

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(本文编辑:王园园)

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
【 收稿日期 】 2021-02-22 【 修回日期 】 2021-05-31
【 基金项目 】 2018王宝恩肝纤维化研究基金(WBEXJS18001); 镇江市重点研发计划(社会发展)项目(SH2018028)
【 作者简介 】 杨吉羚,硕士在读,主管护师,从事心血管护理工作
【 通信作者 】 邹圣强,电话:0511-88970616
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-08-15