[1]刘哲,刘维维.妊娠期糖尿病患者产后糖代谢异常的预测模型研究进展[J].军事护理,2023,40(05):29-32.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-1826.2023.05.007]
　LIU Zhe,LIU Weiwei.Review on Prediction Models of Postpartum Abnormal Glucose Metabolism for Patients with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus[J].Nursing Journal Of Chinese People's Laberation Army,2023,40(05):29-32.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-1826.2023.05.007]
点击复制

妊娠期糖尿病患者产后糖代谢异常的预测模型研究进展
分享到：

《军事护理》[ISSN:2097-1826/CN:31-3186/R]

卷:
40
期数:
2023年05期
页码:
29-32
栏目:
母婴护理专栏
出版日期:
2023-05-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Review on Prediction Models of Postpartum Abnormal Glucose Metabolism for Patients with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus
文章编号:
2097-1826(2023)05-0029-04
作者:
刘哲; 刘维维
(首都医科大学 护理学院,北京100069)
Author(s):
LIU Zhe; LIU Weiwei
(School of Nursing,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100069,China)
关键词:
妊娠期糖尿病;  产后;  糖代谢异常;  风险预测
Keywords:
gestational diabetes mellitus;  postpartum;  abnormal glucose metabolism;  risk prediction
分类号:
R473.71
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.2097-1826.2023.05.007
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的 分析妊娠期糖尿病患者产后糖代谢异常风险预测模型的研究现状,为日后预测模型的构建及验证提供参考与借鉴。方法 检索PubMed、Web of Science core collection、EBSCO、Ovid、ProQuest、Elsevier ClinicalKey全医学平台、中国知网、万方、中国生物医学文献数据库中有关构建妊娠期糖尿病患者产后糖代谢异常风险预测模型的研究,检索时间为建库至2022年12月。结果 共纳入14个预测模型,模型的预测时长从产后6周至产后15年不等,模型的构建方法包括Logistic回归法,Cox回归法和机器学习。纳入模型均未进行外部验证。结论 现有妊娠期糖尿病产后糖代谢异常预测模型预测效能较好,但存在预测因子不全面、缺少外部验证等问题。建议未来采用前瞻性队列研究构建预测模型,充分挖掘可干预预测因子,重视模型外部验证,以促进模型在临床中的应用。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the research on risk prediction models of postpartum abnormal glucose metabolism for patients with gestational diabetes mellitus,so as to provide references for future development and validation of relevant prediction models.Methods The databases of PubMed,Web of Science core collection,EBSCO,Ovid,ProQuest,Elsevier ClinicalKey,CNKI,WangFang and CBM were searched for literature on the development of risk prediction models of postpartum abnormal glucose metabolism for patients with gestational diabetes mellitus.The retrieval time frame was from inception to December,2022.Results A total of 14 prediction models were involved.The prediction length of these models ranged from 6 weeks to 15 years after childbirth.The development methods of these models included Logistic regression,Cox regression and machine learning.None of these models underwent external validation.Conclusions The prediction efficiency of existent prediction models for postpartum abnormal glucose metabolism of gestational diabetes mellitus is good.However,some problems of incomplete predictors and lack of external validation exist.It is suggested that prospective cohort studies should be conducted to develop prediction models,and changeable predictors should be fully explored.External validation of models should be emphasized to promote the application of these models in clinic

参考文献/References:

[1] 中华医学会糖尿病学分会.中国2型糖尿病防治指南(2020年版)[J].中华内分泌代谢杂志,2021,37(4):311-398.
[2] CHO N H,SHAW J E,KARURANGA S,et al.IDF diabetes atlas:global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2017 and projections for 2045[J].Diabetes Res Clin Pract,2018(138):271-281.
[3] 苗志荣,吴红花,任柳,等.妊娠期糖尿病患者产后长期糖代谢转归的研究[J].中华糖尿病杂志,2017,9(11):682-687.
[4] VOUNZOULAKI E,KHUNTI K,ABNER S C,et al.Progression to type 2 diabetes in women with a known history of gestational diabetes:systematic review and meta-analysis[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32404325/.DOI:10.1136/bmj.m1361.
[5] MUCHE A A,OLAYEMI O O,GETE Y K.Predictors of postpartum glucose intolerance in women with gestational diabetes mellitus:a prospective cohort study in Ethiopia based on the updated diagnostic criteria[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32868358/.DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-036882.
[6] KONDO M,NAGAO Y,MAHBUB M H,et al.Factors predicting early postpartum glucose intolerance in Japanese women with gestational diabetes mellitus:decision-curve analysis[J].Diabet Med,2018,35(8):1111-1117.
[7] MCELNAY J C,ELNOUR A A.Risk factor model for developing postpartum diabetes mellitus in patients with gestational diabetes mellitus(GDM)[EB/OL].[2023-02-11].https://www.priory.com/med/postpartumdiabetes.htm.
[8] BARTÁKOVÁ V,BARÁTOVÁ B,PÁCAL L,et al.Development of a new risk score for stratification of women with gestational diabetes mellitus at high risk of persisting postpartum glucose intolerance using routinely assessed parameters[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34070991/.DOI:10.3390/life11060464.
[9] BENGSTON A M,DICE A L E,CLARK M A,et al.Predicting progression from gestational diabetes to impaired glucose tolerance using peri-delivery data:an observational study[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35709723/.DOI:10.1055/a-1877-9587.
[10]ALLALOU A,NALLA A,PRENTICE K J,et al.A predictive metabolic signature for the transition from gestational diabetes mellitus to type 2 diabetes[J].Diabetes,2016,65(9):2529-2539.
[11]LI W,LENG J,LIU H,et al.Nomograms for incident risk of post-partum type 2 diabetes in Chinese women with prior gestational diabetes mellitus[J].Clin Endocrinol(Oxf),2019,90(3):417-424.
[12]MAN B,SCHWARTZ A,PUGACH O,et al.A clinical diabetes risk prediction model for prediabetic women with prior gestational diabetes[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34170930/.DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0252501.
[13]KWAK S H,CHOI S H,KIM K,et al.Prediction of type 2 diabetes in women with a history of gestational diabetes using a genetic risk score[J].Diabetologia,2013,56(12):2556-2563.
[14]KUMAR M,ANG L T,HO C,et al.Machine learning-derived prenatal predictive risk model to guide intervention and prevent the progression of gestational diabetes mellitus to type 2 diabetes:prediction model development study[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35788016/.DOI:10.2196/32366.
[15]IGNELL C,EKELUND M,ANDERBERG E,et al.Model for individual prediction of diabetes up to 5 years after gestational diabetes mellitus[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27065426/.DOI:10.1186/s4 0064-016-1953-7.
[16]WANG X M,GAO Y,ERIKSSON J G,et al.Metabolic signatures in the conversion from gestational diabetes mellitus to postpartum abnormal glucose metabolism:a pilot study in Asian women[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34385555/.DOI:10.1038/s41598-021-95903-w.
[17]JOGLEKAR M V,WONG W K M,EMA F K,et al.Postpartum circulating microRNA enhances prediction of future type 2 diabetes in women with previous gestational diabetes[J].Diabetologia,2021,64(7):1516-1526.
[18]KOHLER M,ZIEGLER A G,BEYERLEIN A.Development of a simple tool to predict the risk of postpartum diabetes in women with gestational diabetes mellitus[J].Acta Diabetol,2016,53(3):433-437.
[19]PEDUZZI P,CONCATO J,KEMPER E,et al.A simulation study of the number of events per variable in logistic regression analysis[J].J Clin Epidemiol,1996,49(12):1373-1379.
[20]VAN SMEDEN M,DE GROOT J A,MOONS K G,et al.No rationale for 1 variable per 10 events criterion for binary logistic regression analysis[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27881078/.DOI:10.1186/s12874-016-0267-3.
[21]RILEY R D,ENSOR J,SNELL K I E,et al.Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32188600/.DOI:10.1136/bmj.m441.
[22]周丽娟,温贤秀,蒋蓉,等.机器学习在护理领域中的应用研究进展[J].护士进修杂志,2022,37(15):1388-1392.
[23]LUO J C,ZHAO Q Y,TU G W.Clinical prediction models in the precision medicine era:old and new algorithms[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32355718/.DOI:10.21037/atm.2020.02.63.
[24]COLLINS G S,REITSMA J B,ALTMAN D G,et al.Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis(TRIPOD):the TRIPOD statement[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25569120/.DOI:10.1136/bmj.g7594.
[25]王俊峰,章仲恒,周支瑞,等.临床预测模型:模型的验证[J].中国循证心血管医学杂志,2019,11(2):141-144.
[26]STEYERBERG E W,HARRELL F E J R.Prediction models need appropriate internal,internal-external,and external validation[J].J Clin Epidemiol,2016(69):245-247.
[27]BONNETT L J,SNELL K I E,COLLINS G S,et al.Guide to presenting clinical prediction models for use in clinical settings[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30995987/.DOI:10.1136/bmj.l737.
[28]El OUAHABI H,DOUBI S,BOUJRAF S,et al.Gestational diabetes and risk of developing postpartum type 2 diabetes:how to improve follow-up?[J/OL].[2023-02-11].https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31143425/.DOI:10.4103/ijpvm.IJPVM_3_17.

相似文献/References:

[1]周英凤,黄娜,李丽,等.妊娠期糖尿病孕妇血糖管理决策困境的质性研究[J].军事护理,2022,39(01):9.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1008-9993.2022.01.003]
　ZHOU Yingfeng,HUANG Na,LI Li,et al.The Decision Conflict of Blood Glucose Management among Pregnant Women with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus:A Qualitative Study[J].Nursing Journal Of Chinese People's Laberation Army,2022,39(05):9.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1008-9993.2022.01.003]
[2]汪昊兰,杨明.促进产后盆底肌康复健康教育模式的范围综述[J].军事护理,2023,40(10):79.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-1826.2023.10.019]
　WANG Haolan,YANG Ming.Health Education Models in Postpartum Pelvic Floor Muscle Rehabilitation Promotion: A Scoping Review[J].Nursing Journal Of Chinese People's Laberation Army,2023,40(05):79.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2097-1826.2023.10.019]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
【 收稿日期 】2022-09-08 【 修回日期 】2023-02-11
【 基金项目 】国家自然科学基金(71904133)
【 作者简介 】刘哲,硕士在读,电话:010-83916507
【 通信作者 】刘维维,电话:010-83916507
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-05-15